Population Trends

San Francisco County Projections

Older adults represent a growing share of the total population, one key driver for PHS' interest in ramping up their capacity to care for this population.

San Francisco County Population Over and Under 65 Years Old(2026-2050)

Key Projection Insights

65+ Share of Total Population

2026 Share19%~1 in 5 residents
2050 Share30%~1 in 3 residents
Growth in 65++61.7%% growth, 2026-2050

Source: California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2C: Total Population by 5-year Age Group and Sex, California Counties, 2020-2070 (Baseline 2024 Population Projections; Vintage 2025 Release). Sacramento: California. September 2025.

Prepared by Bender Health Strategies LLC

Medicare Beneficiary Profile*

San Francisco County

Medicare operates through two primary delivery systems: fee-for-service (FFS) and Medicare Advantage (MA). These systems differ in their payment methodologies, incentives, and the entities responsible for authorizing payment. MA is administered by private managed care plans rather than the federal government directly.

Dual eligibles—individuals enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid—are likely to make up much of PHS's patient population. These beneficiaries may receive their Medicare benefits through either FFS or MA, although enrollment in MA has been increasing. In California, the Department of Health Care Services is also encouraging dual eligibles to enroll in specialized MA plans called Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs), which are designed to coordinate Medicare and Medicaid benefits.

Medicare MA vs. FFS

MA80,149(50.4%)
FFS78,748(49.6%)

Duals vs. Non-Duals

Duals56,345(35.5%)
Non-Duals102,552(64.5%)

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare Monthly Enrollment. November 2025.
*Includes disabled individuals under age 65.

Prepared by Bender Health Strategies LLC

Hospital Utilization

San Francisco County Hospital Comparison

Comparison of Medicare FFS and Advantage utilization across key county health providers. Analysis highlights the reliance on Medicare Traditional (FFS) for safety-net services.

Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital

Medicare Inpatient Volume (FFS vs. MA)

Medicare Days75% FFS

FFS: 29,638

MA: 9,632

Medicare Discharges73% FFS

FFS: 4,265

MA: 1,601

Medicare Outpatient Volume (FFS vs. MA)

Medicare Visits97% FFS

FFS: 331,804

MA: 11,325

Medicare IP Payer Mix (Days)

35%

Of All Payer Total

Medicare IP Payer Mix (Discharges)

37%

Of All Payer Total

Medicare OP Payer Mix (Visits)

25%

Of All Payer Total

Source: California Department of Health Care Access and Information. Hospital Annual Financial Data:
Selected Data & Pivot Tables (FY 2023–2024). Published Oct. 8, 2025.

Prepared by Bender Health Strategies LLC

Hospitals in San Francisco County

Star Ratings

CMS Hospital Star Ratings measures hospital quality in 5 domains: mortality, safety, readmissions, patient experience, and timely and effective care. MA plans are more likely to want to contract with hospitals that have higher star ratings in order to lower plan costs and appeal to patients.

Hospital NameCMS Star Rating
California Pacific Medical Center - Mission Bernal
California Pacific Medical Center- Van Ness Campus
California Pacific Medical Center-Davies Campus Hospital
Chinese Hospital
Jewish Home & Rehab Center
N/A
Kaiser Foundation Hospital - San Francisco
Laguna Honda Hospital & Rehabilitation Center*
N/A
Saint Francis Memorial Hospital*
San Francisco VA Medical Center
St Mary's Medical Center*
UCSF Langley Porter Psychiatric Hospital and Clinics*
N/A
UCSF Medical Center*
Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital & Trauma Center*

* denotes CAPH member hospital

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Hospital General Information, last modified January 26, 2026,
released February 25, 2026.

Prepared by Bender Health Strategies LLC

D-SNPs in San Francisco County

Star Ratings

Dual eligible beneficiaries in California who enroll in Medicare Advantage are not required to enroll in a Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (D-SNP); choosing a D-SNP is voluntary. All D-SNPs in California must have a State Medicaid Agency Contract (SMAC) with the California Department of Health Care Services (DHCS).

Beginning with contract year 2025 and continuing into 2026, DHCS is limiting new enrollment in D-SNPs to plans that are affiliated with a Medi-Cal managed care plan. As a result, the primary D-SNP options for dual eligible beneficiaries in California in 2026 will be those offered by health plans that also contract with DHCS to provide Medi-Cal managed care, including the Integrated Medi-Medi plans.

Existing members of non-affiliated D-SNPs may remain enrolled, but new enrollment is restricted to plans with affiliated Medi-Cal contracts. Plans that achieve more than 4 stars have the opportunity to receive significantly higher reimbursement.

Plan NameStar Rating
Alignment Health CalPlusDuals
High Performance
Anthem Full Dual Advantage Aligned
CCHP Senior Select Program
Central Health Dual Access Plan
Kaiser Permanente Dual Complete North P19
High Performance
SFHP Care Plus
too new to be measured
Wellcare Dual Liberty

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Medicare Plan Compare (2026).

Prepared by Bender Health Strategies LLC